Boko Haram will expose Nigerian army's narrow strategy

Significance

In recent weeks, ISWAP captured the town of Kangarwa and reportedly massacred over 100 soldiers in the nearby town of Metele. Coming just months before the February 2019 presidential election, mounting ISWAP attacks are raising questions over the military’s strategy and President Muhammadu Buhari’s performance since taking office in 2015.

Impacts

• The humanitarian situation in the north-east will likely worsen, as insecurity forces aid agencies to reduce their presence in rural Borno.
• Growing accusations about the military's politicisation could affect the credibility of Buhari’s victory should he win re-election.
• Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau may be able to win back some rival ISWAP members upset over recent turmoil within their faction.