Germany’s coalition will be bound together by weakness

Significance

This comes only days after the government resolved a dispute around the former head of the domestic intelligence agency, Hans-Georg Maassen. This conflict was the second in just over three months that raised serious doubts about the stability of the coalition.

Impacts

• Aside from the AfD, the Greens are likely to benefit from the coalition's disarray.
• If the CSU loses its absolute majority in Bavaria, it may try to form a coalition with the Free Voters and the liberal Free Democrats.
• After Bavaria, federal state elections in Hesse on October 28 is the next test for the coalition parties.
• If the government collapses, a CDU/CSU-Greens-Free Democrats coalition without Merkel could be an alternative to snap elections.