New countries will engage with South China Sea dispute

Significance

The UK patrol follows the French navy sailing through the disputed Spratly Islands in July, and coincided with a Japanese helicopter carrier conducting joint training with the US navy elsewhere in the South China Sea.

Impacts

• Japan will step up its involvement, calculating that China will want to stabilise relations in the context of US-China disputes.
• India will send warships into the South China Sea, but will not soon directly challenge China’s claims.
• China will use threats and incentives to dissuade new countries from asserting navigational rights.