Belarus 'reformist' team may lack mandate for change

Significance

The meeting is the first since Putin appointed a new ambassador to Minsk with enhanced powers. Lukashenka has meanwhile bolstered his own position by bringing in a new cabinet team, after excoriating outgoing ministers during a visit to a failing town, even though most bore no direct blame.

Impacts

• Without clearer hints of economy policy change, an IMF deal will be unlikely.
• The sight of more direct Russian economic involvement in Belarus will deter Kyiv from building stronger connections with Minsk.
• Dissidents and independent journalists are likely to be targeted whenever Lukashenka feels nervous about his position.