Iraqi parties may compromise on a cabinet soon

Significance

The outline of a new coalition is coming together, driven by a series of alliances made by the top vote-winner, Moqtada al-Sadr. Despite a controversial history, in recent years he has taken a strong stance against sectarianism and in favour of good governance. However, the alliances he is building are predominantly Shia so far, including sectarian pro-Iranian militias.

Impacts

• A more technocratic government could accelerate oil development plans.
• Inclusion of Shia militias will mitigate short-term conflict risks but could threaten reconciliation with Sunnis and good governance goals.
• Historically low levels of violence (still representing 50 civilian deaths per week) could decline further.