China will maintain nuclear 'no first use' pledge

Subject

China's pledge to 'no first use' of nuclear weapons.

Significance

The recent introduction of more offensive capabilities into China's nuclear forces, such as multiple warheads, together with Chinese military writings that toy with a future launch-on-warning capability, all seem to complicate China's long-standing pledge of 'no first use' (NFU). China is the only nuclear weapons state to maintain an unconditional and continuous NFU pledge ever since it developed nuclear weapons.

Impacts

• China will not become more transparent in its nuclear policy: Beijing sees opacity as tied to survivability.
• China will focus on conventional military modernisation (including space and cyber), where NFU does not restrict use of force.
• China's adherence to NFU stabilises the non-proliferation regime only in upholding continuity amid uncertainty in Moscow and Washington.
• US-China dialogue on strategic relations will not progress while Washington presses Beijing for details on operational conditions of NFU.