Sri Lanka is likely to face early elections

Subject

Political instability in Sri Lanka.

Significance

Parliament resumed early last month after being prorogued by President Maithripala Sirisena. Sri Lanka’s National Unity Government (NUG), formed after the 2015 legislative elections, is a coalition between Sirisena’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP). Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) leads the Joint Opposition (JO). According to the constitution, a two-thirds parliamentary majority would be required for Sirisena to bring forward the next legislative elections due in 2020.

Impacts

• The breakdown in party discipline in parliament suggests instability will be a long-term feature of Sri Lankan politics.
• Judicial campaigns against the Rajapaksa family will intensify, despite its sustained political influence.
• Political uncertainty will cause the Sri Lankan rupee to fall further against the dollar.