China will step up pressure on Taiwan on all sides

Subject

China-Taiwan relations.

Significance

Burkina Faso on May 24 withdrew diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, the latest result of a raft of measures Beijing has taken this year to isolate Taiwan from the international community and convince Taiwan’s current independence-leaning government that there are significant potential costs for failing to find a modus vivendi with Beijing. The coercive measures included military intimidation, diplomatic pressure and a sharp escalation in pressure on international companies to hew to China’s preferences when referring to Taiwan.

Impacts

• Burkina Faso is likely to establish diplomatic relations with China and receive economic rewards.
• Chinese coercion will prompt gestures of support for Taiwan in the US Congress, where anti-China sentiment runs high.
• Foreign airlines and other firms will adopt approaches that go some way to pleasing Beijing, some of them pre-emptively.