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Duque is clear favourite for Colombian presidency

Content type:: Expert Briefings
Location:: COLOMBIA
Keywords associated with this article:: Geographic: Colombia LA/C Venezuela

Topical: international relations politics social election government opposition policy civil war corruption guerrillas security talks crime refugees
ISSN:: 2633-304X
Citation:: Oxford Analytica (2018), "Duque is clear favourite for Colombian presidency", Expert Briefings.
https://doi.org/10.1108/OXAN-DB233432

Monday, April 30, 2018

Subject

Colombian election preview.

Significance

On May 27, Colombians will elect a successor to President Juan Manuel Santos. Recent polls consistently give Ivan Duque of former President Alvaro Uribe’s right-wing Democratic Centre (CD) a lead of around 10 points over second-placed Gustavo Petro -- a former guerrilla who has come to represent the hopes of the left. Despite his strong lead, Duque looks unlikely to win outright, raising the prospect of a polarising run-off between ideologically opposed candidates.

Impacts

As the election nears, more voters will be drawn to the two leading candidates.
A Duque win would strengthen US relations and could harden the US stance towards Venezuela.
A Petro win would probably sour relations with the United States, potentially affecting US aid to Colombia.

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Significance

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