Myanmar peace process could collapse post-2020

Significance

The meeting, which will be the third in the process so far, has been delayed due to disagreements among ethnic minority groups, including ethnic minority armed groups (EMAGs). Myanmar’s next general election is due in 2020, when State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) will be seeking to retain control of the civilian portion of government.

Impacts

• While ongoing violence may dissuade Western investors, China and India will see opportunity rather than risk in Myanmar.
• China will encourage EMAGs to negotiate peace.
• Myanmar military personnel will face US sanctions over attacks on Rohingya Muslims.