Poll win for Cambodia’s ruling party could be pyrrhic

Subject

Cambodia's ruling party's hold on power.

Significance

Cambodia is scheduled to hold elections for the 125-seat National Assembly on July 29. The poll comes amid rising international scrutiny of the government, whose moves have attracted criticism for damaging Cambodia’s democracy.

Impacts

• The international community would begrudgingly accept continued CPP governance, but further targeted sanctions are likely.
• If the CPP lost the election, and accepted the result, it would probably push for a role in a coalition government.
• Any legal amendments limiting foreign involvement in Cambodian internal affairs could be a risk to foreign investment.