Islamic State on the wane in Russian North Caucasus

Subject

The evolution of North Caucasian insurgency.

Significance

As the Islamic State (IS) group retreats in Iraq and Syria, the North Caucasus seems an obvious place to relocate, with its history of guerrilla warfare and an IS presence. So far that has not happened. Many Caucasian fighters have been killed in the Middle East while local IS groups have been hit hard by Russian security forces. Armed Islamist groups that existed before IS are seeing a resurgence and are the main source of current security threats.

Impacts

• IS's weakness in the Caucasus will not prevent sporadic attacks on urban centres in European Russia.
• Militant attacks will be an irritant and a brake on investment but are unlikely to become a major regional threat.
• Moscow is trying to force better governance on Dagestan and may do so elsewhere.