Fujimori's release may divide his followers in Peru

Subject

Splits within the 'Fujimorista' Fuerza Popular.

Significance

The future of President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski’s administration lies in the hands of the opposition Fuerza Popular (FP) with its large majority in the legislature; a further attempt to impeach Kuczynski himself cannot be ruled out. However, as the failure to impeach him in December showed, the party is divided by the rivalry between the two Fujimori siblings, Keiko and Kenji. Kuczynski’s best hope of survival depends on this division leading to an open split.

Impacts

• A return to strong growth this year would improve Kuczynski’s chances of remaining in office.
• His removal would not lead to a shift in policies towards business.
• If impeached, Kuczynski would probably be succeeded by Vice-President Martin Vizcarra.
• Opposition harassment will continue to erode governability.