An EU-UK transition period will be hard to negotiate

Significance

The implicit assumption, that it will be relatively straightforward to negotiate a transition period to bridge the gap between the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU and the entry into force of a new, permanent arrangement, may be proved wrong over the coming months.

Impacts

• UK cabinet divisions between those wishing to diverge from EU rules and those wishing to stick to them will come to the fore.
• As time runs out, London will probably become more willing to make concessions, allowing the EU to harden its stand.
• Delays in negotiating transition could lead to companies triggering contingency plans for a ‘no deal’ outcome.