Cambodia opposition re-formation plans face hurdles

Significance

The Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) gained eleven more National Assembly seats on November 27, the same day new lawmakers were sworn into the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP)’s vacant seats. The CNRP’s 55 seats were redistributed after it was banned on November 16. These developments will influence the outlook for Cambodia’s political opposition up to the July 2018 general election and potentially beyond.

Impacts

• Having nominated one National Election Commission (NEC) member each, Funcinpec and the CNP could retain influence in the NEC.
• Election turnout in 2018 could be low due to the CNRP ban, though anti-government street protests are unlikely.
• EU and US sanctions on Cambodian officials are likely, but the global community would eventually accept a CPP vote win.