Mosque attack may reduce IS support in Egypt

Significance

It was one of the worst ever incidents of its kind in Egypt. Salafi-jihadists with allegiances to a wide range of factions have been active in northern Sinai for some time, and the conflict between these groups and the Egyptian state security forces has intensified over the past three years since the rise of Islamic State (IS).

Impacts

• The attack will raise questions about the effectiveness of the government’s Sinai campaign.
• On balance, the incident will rally support behind Sisi as he gears up for the presidential election in May 2018.
• IS risks losing support in Sinai as a result of revulsion at the scale of the civilian deaths, but rival groups could benefit.
• The persistent terrorist violence will remain a drag on the recovery of the tourism sector.