New rebel coalitions presage headwinds for Congo

Subject

New rebel coalitions in eastern Congo.

Significance

After declaring its intention violently to oppose President Joseph Kabila's rule, the National People’s Coalition for the Sovereignty of the Congo (CNPSC) in late September launched an offensive against the South Kivu town of Uvira. While eventually unsuccessful, the CNPSC’s attempted march into Uvira was the most significant threat to a large city in eastern Congo since the M23’s capture of Goma in late 2012. The army was able to repel the rebels -- with significant help from UN peacekeepers -- but the coalition remains largely intact, and is only one of several new coalitions that have begun to espouse national political objectives.

Impacts

• Reprisals against civilians are likely as Congo deploys additional army units to crack down on rebel groups.
• The CNPSC’s swift advance has not gone unnoticed by other coalitions, which may be tempted to try similar moves.
• Recent confirmation of electoral delays will likely foster more robust rebel activities.