Turkey’s Erdogan will tighten grip on devoted party

Subject

The removal of elected mayors.

Significance

The departure of several popularly elected mayors including those of Ankara and Istanbul, Turkey’s largest cities, took Turks by surprise when first announced. The removals were on the direct initiative -- indeed, the fairly explicit orders -- of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, although internal party factionalism may also be involved. Erdogan says he wants to renew the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and rid it of “mental fatigue”, but it is hard to see what kind of transformation (if any) he envisages for the AKP.

Impacts

• Faced with growing unpopularity, the AKP will step up its crackdown on opponents.
• Local conflicts may grow between large towns and outlying communities.
• Local urban procurement procedures may be centralised.
• Low municipal taxes and other revenue sources are likely to rise to reduce the high level of central subsidy.