Trump is likely to cement Republican Party takeover

Significance

As Trump’s presidency enters its eighth month, his approval ratings have set a record low compared to other first-year presidents, his White House team faces an investigation by special prosecutor Robert Mueller and legislative priorities on healthcare and tax reform have languished in a Republican Congress during his optimal post-election window. This raises the question of whether Trump’s difficulties with governing after being elected as a populist ‘outsider’ candidate will damage his political support within elite-level Republican politics or his electoral prospects in 2020.

Impacts

• Hard-line candidate Roy Moore winning the Alabama Senate primary would weaken Mitch McConnell’s leadership.
• The Democrats are unlikely to win majorities in Congress after the midterms, with 2020 a more probable opportunity.
• A new Supreme Court vacancy would bolster Trump’s support with conservatives and congressional Republicans.