Pakistan’s ruling party may be hard to dislodge

Subject

Electoral chances of Pakistan's opposition.

Significance

Despite Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification and resignation as prime minister on July 28, his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) remains in power under new Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is now regarded as the opposition party most likely to challenge the incumbent government. A by-election on September 17 in the seat vacated by Sharif -- Lahore’s NA-120 -- will be a test of popularity ahead of the general election due in 2018.

Impacts

• Pakistan’s military will look for greater support from the civilian government if the United States cuts its funding.
• Abbasi will resist pressure to devalue the rupee as a means of bolstering Pakistan’s exports.
• The Muttahida Qaumi Movement in Sindh province may regroup.