CICIG clash throws Guatemalan government into crisis

Subject

The corruption woes facing President Jimmy Morales.

Significance

On September 4, Guatemala’s Supreme Court (CSJ) approved a motion permitting the national legislature to debate removing President Jimmy Morales’s immunity to allow him to be investigated in connection with allegations of corruption. This move follows Morales’s controversial attempt to expel the head of the UN-led International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), which has led to protests and international criticism.

Impacts

• Morales’s actions may have a direct financial impact on the country by cutting aid conditioned on progress in anti-corruption efforts.
• Uncertainty over the evolution of the political crisis may deter investment.
• This will especially be the case if it leads to downgrades by Transparency International or credit rating agencies.
• The struggle for control of the CICIG’s agenda may have ramifications for other countries with similar bodies, such as Honduras.