Latest challenge to Turkey's Erdogan may fall short

Subject

A profile of Meral Aksener.

Significance

Although Turkey’s presidential election is still just over two years off, politicians of all parties, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself, are already focusing on it. The main threat to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) looks increasingly likely to come not from the existing opposition, but from a newcomer, Meral Aksener.

Impacts

• The centre-left will have some qualms about voting for a former nationalist, but many seem already inclined to do so.
• Erdogan has a winning combination: the AKP’s bedrock of support, good organisation, backing from the mosques and ‘administrative resource’.
• A large slice of the population opposes the president and will likely vote for Aksener unless she is discredited.
• Erdogan would find the emergence of a serious rival unacceptable and is stepping up pre-election preparations against it.