External threats will see Havana retrench

Subject

Cuban retrenchment.

Significance

Venezuela's deepening crisis is a serious concern for Cuba, threatening energy supplies and raising the prospect of major economic hardship should President Nicolas Maduro's government collapse. Cuban diplomacy still mobilises sufficient support in Latin America to shield Caracas against isolation. However, with its main ally looking certain to fail sooner or later, Cuba is preparing itself potentially to repeat the struggles of the immediate post-Soviet period.

Impacts

• Latin American governments will struggle to reconcile differences over Venezuela, but that should not affect their relations with Havana.
• US threats against Caracas and Havana will harm critics of the left across Latin America, who will suffer from association with Trump.
• Self-preservation may spur Havana's efforts to mediate in the Venezuela crisis.