China will largely abide by Hong Kong handover terms

Significance

This case adds to a growing list of incidents, including the abduction of five Hong Kong booksellers by mainland agents in 2015, that feed fears in Hong Kong that Beijing is undermining the autonomy the city was promised when the UK government handed it over to China in 1997.

Impacts

• The United Kingdom is unlikely to escalate disputes over Beijing's adherence to the handover treaty since doing so might backfire.
• Evidence of China interfering with business in Hong Kong would be far more economically damaging than targeted political repression.
• Even limited encroachments by Beijing will increase pessimism about the city's long-term future and make young people keener to emigrate.