Mozambican demobilisation gains will prove elusive

Subject

Mozambican peace talks.

Significance

After three years of intermittent hostilities between the FRELIMO government and the RENAMO opposition movement, Mozambique has been free of serious armed political violence since late December 2016 when President Filipe Nyusi began regular telephone dialogue with RENAMO’s leader Afonso Dhlakama. The government has withdrawn some troops, RENAMO has dropped its immediate political demands and working groups are in place with the aim of drafting the technicalities of an agreement. The two leaders met on August 6 at Dhlakama's redoubt, their first meeting in two years, and pledged to take "final steps" towards a settlement. However, no announcements have been made regarding the next steps, let alone what shape that settlement may take.

Impacts

• Ongoing uncertainty regarding gaps in Kroll’s debt report of three parastatals will make a new IMF deal unlikely this year.
• Nevertheless, new LNG investments will be largely isolated from the government’s debt controversies.
• A burgeoning public service wage bill will add to donor concerns that the government is failing to act on the Kroll report findings.