Iran will see policy stability, whoever wins the poll

Significance

A second round of the presidential polls will be held on May 26 if no candidate achieves 50% of the vote. The main issue at stake is which of two major political currents -- conservative/principalist or moderate/reformist -- will control state resources and patronage.

Impacts

• The election outcome will not affect Iran’s commitment to the 2015 nuclear agreement.
• A good reformist showing in Tehran local polls could force out the conservative mayor, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf.
• US policy towards Iran is likely to remain ambivalent, whether the president is moderate or conservative.