Risks could defy French presidency predictions

Significance

Nearly one-third of the electorate is reportedly undecided as France approaches the first round of the presidential election on April 23. This, along with the risk of lower-than-normal voter turnout, could hurt the chances of centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron, who remains the favourite to win the presidency -- if he can make it to the second round on May 7. Le Pen seems almost certain to advance, although her remarks risk a backlash in the second round.

Impacts

• Le Pen and Macron would struggle most to follow a win with a victory in the June legislative elections.
• This could produce a governmental gridlock in which the new president would struggle to pass his or her agenda.
• Fillon, though unlikely to advance, would enjoy the support of his party and probably centrist deputies as well, easing his agenda.