Taiwan's security depends on more than military power

Subject

Taiwan's defence policies.

Significance

Defence minister Feng Shih-kuan announced last month that the government intends to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP, a 50% increase from 2016, to counter the growing threat from mainland China’s military. Much of that budget will be used for procurement of advanced weaponry from the United States, Taiwan's chief weapons supplier, and to boost the domestic defence industry, including an ambitious plan launched last month to build submarines locally.

Impacts

• Chinese military activity around Taiwan, elevated since President Tsai Ing-wen took office, will probably increase further.
• Beijing is more likely than previously to direct its anger over arms sales at Taipei rather than Washington.
• Taipei will seek to expand relations with Washington beyond arms sales, pressing in particular for a free-trade agreement.
• Taiwan will remain militarily vulnerable no matter how much is spent on national defence.