EU-led reform will be loser in Bulgarian elections

Significance

The change of president and government in late January has shifted the power balance in favour of the Socialist Party (BSP), but the centre-right Citizens for Bulgaria’s European Development (GERB) is still the stronger political force. The three most influential parties -- GERB, BSP and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) -- are all focused on preserving the political and economic status quo, and on opposing radical judicial reform as demanded by the EU. Pro-reform forces to the right of GERB are in disarray, while the nationalist parties are united and on the rise.

Impacts

• GERB has yet to find itself a role that could win it another victory over the BSP, as in 2014.
• As the weaker party, the BSP will be more aggressive in exploiting anti EU sentiment.
• Long-anticipated judicial reform will remain elusive.
• The degree of Bulgaria's distance from Brussels will be influenced primarily by events and elections in Western Europe.