Moscow will press Arctic claims with law and military

Subject

Russia's Arctic strategy.

Significance

Russia has identified the Arctic as a strategic priority and future resource base, and is working systematically to expand its territorial claim and consolidate control of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). While it seeks cooperation with like-minded Arctic states, it is upgrading its military capacity to defend its interests in what it sees as an increasingly competitive environment as outside players try to make inroads.

Impacts

• NATO states will respond to Moscow's growing military presence by upgrading their Arctic capacity.
• Russian military expansion will be constrained by procurement delays affecting the defence sector generally.
• A relaxation in US sanctions would facilitate technology transfers for developing Arctic hydrocarbons deposits.