East Timor elections will yield unsustainable policies

Subject

East Timor’s 2017 parliamentary and presidential elections.

Significance

East Timor goes to its fourth round of democratic elections this year, to elect a new president and parliament. The next government will face negotiations with Australia over a disputed maritime boundary in the hydrocarbon-rich Timor Sea where development has been on hold over disputes on where the natural gas should be processed.

Impacts

• Budgetary reform is unlikely to begin before development of Greater Sunrise or exhaustion of existing production.
• A conciliatory position on Greater Sunrise development is unlikely should Gusmao, aged 70, remain in cabinet.
• Post-election collaboration between the two major parties could see increased levels of official rent-seeking by government figures.