Merkel is likely to remain chancellor beyond 2017

Subject

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's prospects.

Significance

Chancellor Angela Merkel's recent admission that the scale of the migrant challenge had been underestimated has not paid off. Neither has it reversed her dramatic fall in public approval ratings, nor has it silenced critics within her Christian Democratic Union (CDU). As a result, serious doubts over the future of her chancellorship and her re-election prospects in 2017 are now hanging over Berlin.

Impacts

• Despite the media hype about the possible near end of Merkel's reign, a dramatic U-turn in her general migrant policy is unlikely.
• Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble would be a natural transition candidate if Merkel stepped down for personal reasons.
• The CDU is unlikely to succeed in winning back voters who flocked to the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) before next year's election.