Rotating NATO battalions may not bolster credibility

Subject

Planned NATO deployments in the Baltic states.

Significance

NATO military officials discussed the planned deployment next year of 4,000 troops to the Baltic states at the alliance's September 16-18 Military Committee Conference in Split, Croatia. The NATO decision over the summer to deploy four multinational battalions to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland is an important signal that NATO continues to reorient itself towards the challenge of an assertive Russia along the alliance's eastern rim, and will have implications for an evolving NATO posture in Europe.

Impacts

• NATO members in the Black Sea region, specifically Romania and Bulgaria, may call for similar arrangements in the future.
• NATO non-members Finland and Sweden will seek to engage with the multinational battalions to enhance interoperability.
• The rotating NATO battalions may be ill suited to respond to low-level Russian provocations.