ASEAN institutional headwinds mean national answers

Subject

Outlook for ASEAN's institutional development.

Significance

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has formally accepted ASEAN's chairmanship for 2017. ASEAN has met some success in 2015-16, including launching the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). However, most recently, it has been challenged by the fallout from the July 12 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNLCOS) ruling against China over the South China Sea, which has exposed internal and organisational weaknesses.

Impacts

• Member states' bureaucracies and central banks will define the ASEAN integration dynamic.
• Individual South-east Asian states rather than ASEAN will drive trade and security initiatives.
• Progress on closing intra-ASEAN economic development and governance gaps will be slow.