Local resistance will thwart reforms in China

Subject

Political contention between central and local government.

Significance

The central government has identified a set of reforms to address China's structural economic and social problems, but it faces a challenge ensuring compliance. Even if the Xi administration manages to silence political opponents in the top echelons, a greater challenge lies on the front line of policy implementation, at the county and township levels where silent non-implementation and policy distortion threaten the outcome of the reforms.

Impacts

• Beijing has limited capacity to monitor local cadres; major progress is likely only on reforms singled out as national priorities.
• Political and administrative reforms and environmental policies have the brightest prospects for local implementation.
• Financial reform, wealth redistribution and marketisation of local-level state-owned enterprises will be more challenging.