Kurdish insurgency risk may rise in Iran

Subject

Iran's Kurdish separatist tensions.

Significance

Hostilities have re-erupted in recent months between the Iranian government and the Iranian Kurdish opposition group, the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI), after a ceasefire that lasted two decades. The KDPI is seeking to revitalise their campaign against Tehran on the back of regional developments that have paved the way for the ascendance of Kurdish separatist groups in Turkey, Syria and Iraq.

Impacts

• KDPI attacks could increase militant recruitment, and prompt other Iranian Kurdish groups to revive their operations.
• Saudi Arabia could seek to fund the KDPI, using it as a lever to pressure Iran over Syria and Yemen.
• In the (unlikely) event of serious conflict, violence could extend to Iran's major cities, damaging its business and energy interests.
• In the longer term a settlement of the Kurdish issue in Turkey and Syria would see Kurdish fighters focus their energy on Iran.
• Ongoing KDPI attacks launched from Iraq would strain Iran's relations with the Iraqi Kurds.