Ethiopia's government will enforce order

Subject

Implications of recent protests.

Significance

The past two weeks have seen a significant increase in protests against the government. Residents in towns across the Oromiya region have demonstrated sporadically since late 2015 after an initial wave of dissent in early 2014. Protests in the Amhara region, including in the town of Gondar, appear to signal an important shift in dynamics. The protests are the most significant challenge the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has confronted since the death of former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in 2012.

Impacts

• External pressure is unlikely to influence the behaviour of the government, despite its reliance on aid.
• Attacks on ethnic Tigrayans and the ethnic characterisation of the protests as 'Oromo' or 'Amhara' will deepen polarisation in society.
• The military may take a more front-line role in politics if its leaders perceive politicians as being unable to maintain order.