Germany's EU leadership role to become more difficult

Subject

Germany's post-Brexit EU policies.

Significance

The Brexit shock inflicted on the mostly stagnating economies of the EU and on the principle of the political management of shared crises will affect Germany in particular: it will weaken the economy's growth dynamic and increase the country's political and financial burden.

Impacts

• Persistent economic stagnation across the continent will further challenge the austerity-driven orthodoxy of Germany's finance ministry.
• Germany is likely to seek greater cooperation with France to avoid being seen as too dominant.
• The idea of a less united, two-speed EU may become more attractive and the process of European convergence could slow down.