Croatian-Serbian tensions are unlikely to calm soon

Subject

Recent incidents inflaming relations between Croatia and Serbia.

Significance

Croatia and Serbia are the dominant Balkan states. Both have failed to come to terms with their fascist, radical and nationalist pasts. EU-style reconciliation has hardly started, 25 years after the wars of the 1990s.

Impacts

• Croatian political parties are likely to resort to nationalism to attract votes in the September elections.
• The intermingling of people from different ethnic groups across the region may encourage violent incidents.
• Croatian-Serbian tensions could worsen the situation in Bosnia in particular, where inter-ethnic tensions have risen recently.
• Croatia could attempt once again to use Serbia's EU membership bid as an instrument in their quarrel, holding up its progress.