Egypt unlikely to solve aviation safety concerns soon

Significance

Russia suspended all direct flights to the country after Islamic State group (ISG)'s Sinai affiliate downed a Russian A321 Metrojet civilian aircraft departing from Egypt's Sharm el-Sheikh airport on October 31, 2015. Further incidents followed in 2016, including the hijacking of an EgyptAir flight from Alexandria to Cairo in March, and the crash of an EgyptAir flight from Paris to Cairo in May. These developments have focused international attention on the ability of the authorities to ensure aviation safety, and on the intention of locally-based terrorist groups to target the sector.

Impacts

• Egypt's forthcoming report on the Metrojet's black boxes may be ineffective in assuaging concerns about how an explosive device got onboard.
• Until the flight bans are lifted, prospects for a revival of Egypt's tourism industry are dim.
• Attacks in Sharm el-Sheikh, Brussels and Istanbul show ISG's interest in taking advantage of airport vulnerabilities.
• Egypt will make slow progress in reducing the threat from ISG-Sinai.