Iran's military set for more aggressive stance in Gulf

Significance

Tensions between the Gulf states and Iran have escalated significantly in 2016, in the wake of Iran's signing of a landmark deal in 2015 that brought to an end the decade-long dispute over its nuclear programme. The response of Iran's military to the heightened tensions will be partly influenced by the new chairman of the Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS), the country's top military body, Major General Mohamad Hossein Bagheri.

Impacts

• A more assertive and non-compromising IRGC will increase pressure on President Hassan Rouhani as he seeks re-election in 2017.
• Improvements in intelligence collection and dissemination are likely in Syria, aimed at reducing Iranian casualties.
• The military and government are likely to clash soon over the defence budget and its allocation.
• The government will try to keep the IRGC in check by tipping the media off about alleged financial wrongdoings.
• With the next US president expected to adopt a harder-line stance on Iran, the diplomatic rapprochement may be reversed partially.