Traditional loyalties may crumble in Mexico in 2018

Subject

The June 5 state election results.

Significance

According to preliminary results, President Enrique Pena Nieto's ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) won only five of the twelve state gubernatorial elections held on June 5. In contrast, the conservative opposition National Action Party (PAN) won seven -- four on its own and three in coalition with the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), which did not obtain a single governorship by itself. The radical, leftist National Regeneration Movement (Morena) performed particularly well in Veracruz and Zacatecas, where it won between one-quarter and one-third of the vote, although it did not win any governorships.

Impacts

• Alliances of ideological opposites PAN and PRD are electorally effective and may see them win the State of Mexico in 2017.
• Nevertheless, the PAN will have little incentive to join forces with a weak PRD for the presidential election in 2018.
• While Morena did not win any governorship, leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is now well positioned ahead of 2018.