Sri Lanka constitutional reform will end in compromise

Subject

Outlook for constitutional reform.

Significance

About 18 months after a presidential election and nine months after securing a parliamentary majority, the 'national unity government' of President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe has begun the process of debating a potential new constitution. After some delay, a resolution in parliament was agreed upon by all parties, creating a special committee comprising all MPs to debate the reform. These sessions began in April, and reforms are expected to be agreed by year-end.

Impacts

• The government is unlikely to push anti-graft probes aggressively, somewhat reducing the uncertainty surrounding China-funded projects.
• Failure to appease moderate Tamil leaders on devolution could embolden Tamil hardliners, sowing seeds for long-term political rifts.
• Economic reforms will be slow, especially those involving unpopular fiscal austerity measures.