Manila cannot count on UNCLOS ruling against China

Subject

Manila's case against Beijing at the UNCLOS arbitral tribunal.

Significance

An international tribunal is expected this month or next to rule on a landmark case brought by the Philippines against China over the South China Sea issue. The decision will have far-reaching reverberations for the South China Sea, the Law of the Sea, and international law and politics in East Asia. US officials have expressed concern that it will exacerbate tensions in the region as China responds assertively to an adverse finding.

Impacts

• The case may provide the long-awaited legal definition of an 'island' under the UNCLOS.
• The arbitration could 'legalise' China's nine-dash line.
• The tribunal is most likely to uphold Philippine claims in waters around Scarborough Shoal.
• It will probably reject Chinese assertions of 'historic rights', but some key findings will favour China.