Egypt will struggle to dislodge jihadis from Sinai

Subject

ISG prospects in Egypt.

Significance

Egypt's Regional Center for Strategic Studies said on April 13 that 49 security personnel had been killed in the first quarter of 2016, down from 60 during the same period in 2015 and 69 in 2014. The majority of incidents take place in the Sinai Peninsula, where the Islamic State group (ISG) has taken advantage of a longstanding insurgency to establish a branch, 'Wilayat Sinai'.

Impacts

• A major Wilayat Sinai attack on the MFO will likely precipitate a temporary redeployment of international forces from North Sinai.
• ISG attacks on foreign interests in Egypt will increase international frustration with Cairo's inability to secure Sinai.
• It may also raise the likelihood of outside military involvement against the group.
• A significant Wilayat Sinai strike against Israel could draw that country into major operations in Sinai -- even without Egyptian approval.