Jerusalem deal will have limited impact on violence

Significance

His comments come as Israel and Jordan (which is the custodian of the site) move forward with plans to reduce tension at the site, which has been a flashpoint of conflict for decades, most recently last September, when Muslim and Jewish holidays overlapped. The area, known to Muslims as al-Haram al Sharif (Noble Sanctuary) and Jews as the Temple Mount, is one of the most contentious issues dividing Israelis and Palestinians.

Impacts

• Tensions in late April around the Passover holiday (April 22-30) could escalate as nationalist Jews attempt to pray on the Temple Mount.
• The agreement strengthens Jordan's claim to custodianship of Jerusalem's holy sites while undermining Palestinian claims to Jerusalem.
• Jordanian-Israeli trust and cooperation will expand, especially in the military and security realms.
• A violation of the agreement or provocative visits by Israeli MPs could trigger clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces.
• Renewed violence could undermine Israeli-Jordanian diplomatic and military cooperation, and the tentative Israeli-Turkish detente.