New Benin leader will need allies to push reform plan

Subject

Political outlook for Benin.

Significance

Last week the Constitutional Court confirmed independent candidate Patrice Talon's victory in the March 20 presidential run-off, in which he secured 65.4% of the vote. He defeated the ruling Cowry Forces for an Emerging Benin's (FCBE) candidate, Prime Minister Lionel Zinsou, who received 34.6%. The outcome is indicative of widespread disillusionment with former President Thomas Boni Yayi.

Impacts

• Low GDP growth in major trade partner Nigeria (2.8% in 2015 compared to 6.2% in 2014) will depress economic activity in Benin.
• Encouraged by donors, the new administration will likely accelerate devolution to local authorities.
• On foreign policy, Talon will likely prioritise regional cooperation on tackling piracy and preventing the spread of Islamist militancy.
• He will also continue Boni Yayi's proactive courting of Chinese investment to improve Benin's dilapidated infrastructure.
• Plans to reduce graft by tightening central controls over state procurement will likely prove difficult to implement.