Russian opposition will not forge winning coalition

Significance

Yabloko and Parnas are the two main democratic opposition parties. In January, they began discussions on a possible electoral coalition. Within days, talks had broken down amid mutual accusations of intransigence. Kasyanov's latest comments are a response to an appeal to both parties signed by leading public figures. Yabloko leader Emilia Slabunova replied that her party must be the senior partner in any arrangement, making a deal look unlikely.

Impacts

• A United Russia victory by a relatively low margin would reflect public discontent with the economy, not a reinvigorated opposition.
• Beyond the elections, opposition parties will face increasing repression as Putin's policies become more authoritarian.
• Election monitoring groups that were prominent in highlighting flaws in 2011 will face increased curbs this year.