Political machinations will worsen Venezuela crisis

Significance

In a lengthy live broadcast on February 17, President Nicolas Maduro announced measures intended to address the grave economic crisis, while the opposition-dominated National Assembly passed an amnesty bill for 'political prisoners' retroactive to 1999 and opposition figure Henrique Capriles called for a recall campaign to remove Maduro.

Impacts

• Mobilisations and confrontation are likely as government and opposition supporters seek to defend respective decrees, bills and campaigns.
• Concerns as to a default will mount as oil prices flatten despite an oil output freeze agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC countries.
• Without a rapid improvement in the supply of basic goods and dollars, the risk of civil disorder will increase.