Moldovan political turmoil will boost pro-Russia camp

Subject

The rift between the political elite and the electorate.

Significance

The crisis of late 2014, in which politicians were accused of complicity in a large bank fraud, continues to create political turbulence in Moldova. The arrest of former Prime Minister Vlad Filat in October led to further crisis in which one ruling coalition was replaced by another as street protests by an alliance of pro-Russian and pro-European forces continued. The approval of Pavel Filip as prime minister in January did nothing to strengthen the government's credibility in the eyes of an angry electorate.

Impacts

• Snap parliamentary elections would significantly strengthen Russia's position, as pro-Moscow parties would gain ground.
• The EU will become cautious about financial aid for Eastern Partnership members and will demand evidence of transparency.
• The Romanian political establishment will lose its enthusiasm for unification with a dysfunctional Moldova.